NHL Prop Hit Rates
Free hit rates for every NHL player prop on tonight's slate: L5, L10 and L25 windows, the hit rate against tonight's opponent, and the best price across sportsbooks. Model probability, EV and projections are Premium.
Top hit rates on this slate
- 1 K'Andre Miller CAR U 1.5 Shots 80.0% L10 -195 DraftKings
- 2 Mark Stone VGK U 0.5 Assists 80.0% L10 -180 DraftKings
- 3 Shayne Gostisbehere CAR U 1.5 Shots 80.0% L10 -145 DraftKings
- 4 Jalen Chatfield CAR O 1.5 Blocks 80.0% L10 -150 BetMGM
- 5 Mitch Marner VGK U 2.5 Shots 70.0% L10 -180 DraftKings
- 6 Mitch Marner VGK O 0.5 Assists 70.0% L10 -140 DraftKings
- 7 Andrei Svechnikov CAR U 0.5 Assists 70.0% L10 -188 DraftKings
- 8 Jaccob Slavin CAR U 1.5 Blocks 70.0% L10 -125 DraftKings
- 9 Nikolaj Ehlers CAR U 2.5 Shots 70.0% L10 -140 DraftKings
- 10 Sebastian Aho CAR O 0.5 Points 70.0% L10 -140 DraftKings
NHL Player Prop Hit Rates, Free and Updated Every Game Day
The Prop Hit Rates board at 5V5 Hockey shows how often every NHL player prop on tonight's slate has hit over recent windows, next to the best sportsbook price and the implied probability that price represents. Every hit rate, line and price below is free. Model probability, expected value and the projection behind each prop stay behind the Premium lock.
What a hit rate means
A hit rate is the share of recent games in which a player's actual stat cleared, fell under, or reached the threshold shown for that row. It describes what already happened, not what will happen tonight. Treat it as evidence to weigh alongside matchup, usage and price, not as a forecast on its own.
Under rows show the under's own hit rate. A 70% rate on a "U 2.5" row means the player finished under 2.5 in 70% of the games counted, not that the over hit 30% of the time. Read every row's rate against its own side.
Players with fewer than 5 games this season show 0% in the L5 column, and players with fewer than 10 games show 0% in the L10 column, because there is not yet a full window to measure. This is most common early in the season and for recent call-ups. It is a sample-size gap, not a sign the player never hits that side.
Column guide
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
| Player | Skater or goalie, with the game they are playing in tonight |
| Team / Opp | The player's team and tonight's opponent |
| Market | The stat the prop is on: shots on goal, goals, assists, points, blocks, hits or saves |
| Bet | The side and line, for example "O 2.5" (over 2.5), "U 2.5" (under 2.5) or "3+" (3 or more) |
| L5 / L10 / L25 | Hit rate for that side over the player's last 5, last 10 and last 25 games |
| Vs Opp | Hit rate for that side against tonight's specific opponent, this season only |
| Price | The best American odds found across the sportsbooks we track for that exact bet, with the book that offers it. Switch the Sportsbook filter to see one book's price instead of the best available |
| Implied | The probability the displayed price implies, including the sportsbook's vig (its built-in margin). This is what the market is pricing in, not our own model |
| Prob / EV / Proj | 5V5 Hockey's model probability, expected value and stat projection for the bet. Premium only |
| Books | How many sportsbooks we found a price for on that exact bet |
Main lines vs. all lines
"Main lines" shows one row per player, market and side, using the most commonly posted line across books. Sportsbooks do not always agree on where that line sits: one book might post Over 2.5 shots on goal while another posts Over 3.5 for the same player. The Main lines view picks the most common line so you are not comparing two different bets side by side. Switch to "All lines" to see every line and every alternate ("N+") bet we found, including the ones Main lines hides.
Related tools
- NHL Player Props: per-market grids with model probability, projections and matchup context
- Game Betting Model: win probability, goalie starts and save percentage by game
- Tim's Picks: goal-scorer picks ranked by projection and hit rate